National Book Award nominees are announced: My mostly uninformed opinions

Mathematically speaking, I am much more informed about this year's field of National Book Award finalists than I was last year, when I hadn't read any of the competing books. This year, I read and reviewed... one. So if Rachel Kushner, author of TELEX FROM CUBA, wins the National Book Award for fiction, I am going to look remarkably prescient in my reviewing choices.

Instead of trying to pretend as if I have read the rest, I will now analyze them on what little information I do have. Hey, you were warned by the title!

Fiction: I have to give the home-field advantage to Marilynne Robinson, a somewhat late bloomer whose last novel GILEAD won the Pulitzer Prize. (She's also a graduate of Brown University -- or rather, Pembroke, the women's college that was then affiliated with Brown -- so hurrah!) If HOME, which is a follow-up to GILEAD ("sequel" is a dirty word here), is as good as her previous works I think she will definitely get it. TELEX FROM CUBA got a New York Times Book Review cover, but I didn't love it, nor did I see that Times rave really reflected anywhere else. I'm penciling in THE LAZARUS PROJECT as my dark-horse, because if this Boldtype review is correct, I will love it, but the books I love don't usually win awards. I have never heard of Salvatore Scibona's THE END or Peter Matthiessen's SHADOW COUNTRY, so I am going to assume they have no chance, according to the 2000 rule.*

Nonfiction: I've probably read the most about the Drew Gilpin Faust book, THIS REPUBLIC OF SUFFERING, so I'm anointing that the front-runner. But THE HEMINGSES OF MONTICELLO by Annette Gordon-Reed could act as a spoiler, since they are both about pre-1900 American history (unlike the rest of the field). And it is an election year, which means dark horse THE DARK SIDE: THE INSIDE STORY OF HOW THE WAR ON TERROR TURNED INTO A WAR ON AMERICAN IDEALS (Jane Mayer), would send a powerful message to the Powers That Be. I'm thinking it's Mayer for the win. Also-rans: Joan Wickersham, THE SUICIDE INDEX; Jim Sheeler, FINAL SALUTE.

I will refrain from picking in the poetry and YA categories, because if you thought this batch of picks was uninformed, you've got no idea what's in store for you in those departments.

Kudos to FSG and Knopf, the Chanel and Louis Vuitton of publishers, for getting two books each in the nomination pool.

*In all the fiction picks since 2000, there has only been one year in which the winner was unknown to me at the time. Short sighted? You bet, but I assume that while the people voting on these prizes are better informed than I am, they will probably be most familiar with the books that have penetrated the farthest. Tune in November 19th when I am humiliated by how little I know and the awards are given out.